Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Centres

 

In the so-called rugby glory years of the 70s, the only job of a centre was to chuck the ball as quickly as possible to the wingers; you’d be annoyed if you were tackled more than twice in a game.  Only if you were Welsh did you really try anything different.  Back then it was the position of “not quites” - not quite strong enough to be a flanker, fast enough to be a wing, smart enough to be a fly half or fat enough to be prop.  But the game has changed a little bit since then.

 

It began in the 80s, with the running talents of centres such as Clive Woodward, John Devereux, Brendan Mullin and, of course, Jeremy Guscott showing how modern centres could run like wingers and tackle like flankers.  As the game went professional, the centre became more and more central to the way teams would play.  These days, they are expected to do everything – pass, run, tackle, kick, ruck, maul, speak at least 4 different languages and be able to sing “Ke Sera Sera” backwards...all at the same time.

 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which talented all-rounders are going to be making up the Lions midfield in 6 months time...

 

Inside Centre – this would be an easy one to call and I have no doubt he would be a huge star on the tour.  Alas though, the injury curse has struck.  Yes, I’ve ruptured my ACL and so I will be missing the tour, despite being a (self-promoted, admittedly) bolter for a starting spot.

 

I don’t normally buy into the view that your 12 has to be a second receiver/ball player.  The key is balance between your centres and your 15 – one of them has to be able to step in and help the 10.  I wouldn’t classify Ma’a Nonu or Jamie Roberts as terrible passers of the ball, but nor would I class them as fly-half fairies. Certainly not to their face anyway.  In fact, against the Australians, I would prefer a physical unit at 12 not just for the fact that the Lions can send him down the 10 channel where Quade Cooper will hopefully be cowering, but also because it gives the Lions a chance to take David Pocock out of the game for the second phase, where he is at his most dangerous.  If he is too busy trying to take down a monster of a centre crashing over his fly half, then it forces him to be tied up at the bottom of a ruck for the next phase, or two, of play.

 

With this in mind, there is currently only one man for the job – Samoan born Englishman MANU TUILAGI.  It’s true that the Leicester bowling bowl is usually at 13 for club and country, but many see his long term future at 12 where he has performed successfully in the past.  At 12 Manu can get his hands on the ball quickly and on the gainline, where he is most destructive and can utilise his unbelievable leg drive and low centre of gravity to devastating effect.  After setting records for bench pressing and winning wrestling contests in the England camp, not to mention his family ‘traits’, it’s easy to think of Tuilagi as just a powerhouse.  Wrong. With good feet and impressive speed, Tuilagi also has the ability to get on the outside of defenders, which is coupled with a surprisingly soft pair of hands for which he is often not credited – his two assists against New Zealand are perfect examples of what he is capable of. 

In fact, during the Autumn series he made more metres, beat more defenders and made more offloads than any other England player.  Defensively, he suffered from the ‘Samoan Syndrome’ early on where he would rush out of the line whilst looking for the big hit, but he has worked hard at this over the last 18 months to ensure that he remains disciplined without losing the ultra-physical edge that makes him such a nightmare to run at.  In fact, the only person in the world tougher than Manu Tuilagi is Mrs Tuilagi.  Manu has 6 brothers, and he’s the smallest – think about that.  Wow.  Respect to you Mrs Tuilagi, put your feet up and have a cigar.

 

The other standout candidate for the 12 shirt of course is the last Lions tour man of the series, big Welshman JAMIE ROBERTS.  World class centre, doctor and thoroughly nice guy, it is a constant irritation that I can’t find a single reason to dislike him.  Last Lions tour he broke the South African line time and time again, smashing through tackles with ease and offloading with aplomb to his teammates. He has struggled to replicate that spectacular form since then, despite playing an impressive part in Wales Grand Slam last year, but if he puts in a series of big performances like we all know he is capable of then he could make that starting shirt his own. A certain tourist either way.

 

Some dark horses, but long shots for the 12 shirt will be Irish veteran Gordon D’Arcy, who will be relishing the chance to travel with his old mucker Brian O’Driscoll once more, as well as South African born Saracens centre Brad Barritt.  Defensively one of the best centres about, but questions still remain over his skill as an attacker – unless Conrad Smith waves through a gap the size of Watford again.  A potential bolter is Billy Twelvetrees though: the Gloucester man has been in great form for his club and he seems to have all the attributes to be a superb 12 – great hands, good speed, big boot, a strong carry and a surname that sounds like it’s been taken from a Roald Dahl book – so it will be interesting to see how he fares.

 

Outside Centre – with the wrecking ball that is Manu Tuilagi at 12, who do we have on his outside with a touch more finesse?  To be fair, if Manu is in his most destructive mood, an angry buffalo with tourette’s might have more subtlety, but you get my gist.  There are 2 obvious contenders here – both are players who will be able to take advantage of the space created by Tuilagi’s trucking runs, hitting gaps and providing chances to others – and I am going to give in to temptation and hand the 13 shirt to BRIAN O'DRISCOLL for one last hurrah. 

 

BOD has been, without question, the best centre of his generation and probably the best Irish centre of all time.  His footwork, spatial awareness, speed of thought and rock solid defence have always marked him out as a special talent, but what raises him above all others is his ability to create something from nothing through moments of pure genius:

 

Although he has a habit of winding me up with his smug, squishy face when his side defeats the one I support (which happens with a fair degree of regularity), his phenomenal handling skills, leadership qualities and experience hand him a starting role. 

 

He is pushed all the way though by the ever-impressive Welsh centre JONATHAN DAVIES.  With a low centre of gravity, Davies is powerful enough to give thrust to an attack but he has a wonderfully subtle sleight of hand developed from his formative years when he played at fly half, and his scoring rate of 8 tries in 28 starts for Wales shows that he knows how to sniff out try scoring opportunities.  If he can recreate his Grand Slam form this time around, there is every chance he will snatch the starting jersey of the legendary O’Driscoll.  This Jonathan Davies is, of course, not to be confused with his highly irritating name sake who commentates on the BBC.  Someone get that man’s balls to drop.

 

Behind these two outstanding 13s there are a couple of bolters who could yet make a splash when it comes to selection.   Scott Williams struggles to break into the Welsh side because of Roberts and Davies, but further impressive cameos will ensure that he keeps the pressure up, whilst London Irish flyer Jonathan Joseph has shown his sublime talent in flashes – but he needs to develop consistency.  Elsewhere, Scottish centre...er...nope, sorry.  A tragic weakness for the Scots at international level is the lack of a first rate centre – although they are defensively solid, I think a returning Scott Hastings would have more chance of getting game time on the tour.

 

Centres of Attention

I’ve picked the four standout candidates, and although there will be arguments about who starts and where, I sense that these four are fairly settled on at the moment.  That said, it’s a Lions year and calls made with certainty at this stage often end up in embarrassment at best, and financial ruin (if you’re an excessive gambler) at worst.  I think the starting centres I have picked have a perfect mix of subtlety and power, similar to that of the Roberts/O’Driscoll partnership on the last tour, and has the potential to cause more panic to the Australians than a national shortage of barbeque coals.

Starters: Tuilagi, O’Driscoll

Sub: Davies
Dirt Tracker: Roberts

Who would make up your Lions midfield?

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Half Backs

Half backs.  Similar in so many ways and yet construed completely differently.  Fly halves are the lynchpin of a side, the quarterback, the playmaker and the glory-getter, probably picked in that position since their first school team just because he was the only lad in class to have a girlfriend.  Although I'm sure that there are anomalies (Andy Goode, for example, unless he's just aged particularly badly), you know the type I'm talking about from school – good at all sports, confident, popular, decent looking with a consistent conveyer belt of totty on his arm and, worst of all, smug.  Standard fly half material.  On the other hand, the school coach would probably look at most ratty, loud-mouthed skinny runt and think he'd found his ideal 9.  Whilst all forwards (especially props for some reason), when nobody's around, dream of showcasing their as yet undiscovered talents at 10, nobody gives a thought for 'trying out' at scrum half – perhaps in main due to the 'Have a go Bergamasco Fiasco':

 

Most forwards will look at their fly half with a mixture of awe and adoration as he pulls the strings from the pocket (as long as he doesn't miss his touch finders – then there's hell to pay) but it is a challenge enough trying to find a scrum half who is liked by his own teammates and/or supporters, let alone anyone else.  And yet it is the 9 who really dictates the way the game is run.  He decides when to the pull the trigger and release the backs, when to dart for gaps around the edges, when to unleash the big runners on the fringes or when to aimlessly boot a box kick upfield to give possession straight back to the opposition.  Their communication 'skills' (i.e. gobbing off constantly) are both essential and irritating to their pack, the opposition and the referee alike.

 

So let's scour the British and Irish sides for a pair of half backs who will run the show and grab the back pages and the glory off the back of everyone else's hard work.

 

Scrum half – Certainly, on the face of it, one of the most difficult positions to call.  In my opinion, the role of the 9 has evolved from just simply shipping the ball off the base, to using vision and speed to keep defences guessing, drawing them in and providing the fly half with more time.  The relationship with the 10 is also crucial, where we want a marriage of styles that is more Posh and Becks and less Russell Brand and, well, whoever he decides to marry next.   If we have a static fly half, we want a 9 who gets the ball to him quickly, rather than eating up the space provided, whilst a more attack-minded 10 who attacks the gainline will benefit from a darting scrum half who creates indecision in the defenders' minds – this will be especially important against Australia's superb backrow.  I think currently that the obvious starter at 10 for the lions (see below) will benefit from the latter, so let's take a look at the attacking scrum halves who are going to be potentially bamboozling the bogans down under this summer.

 

There are, currently, three standout candidates for the Lions who can provide the threat off the base needed to kickstart a Lions attack and, to be honest, you could probably get a good result from any one of them – I am of course talking about Mike Phillips, Ben Youngs and Danny Care.  For my starter spot, I'm going to roll the dice with BEN YOUNGS.  Starting for England ahead of Care, he's been coming back into the form that shredded the Aussies to pieces twice in 4 months in 2010 when he burst onto the scene.  Since then he has suffered from injury, inconsistency (brilliant one game, abysmal the next) and immaturity, throwing tantrums that 5 year old on a sugar binge would be proud of.  Over the last year however, he's shown signs of getting back to his best whilst adding other strings to his bow such as his box kicking – a department in which  he is currently far superior to the other contenders, demonstrated by turning in a brilliant display of tactical maturity against Toulouse.  What Youngs does so well, however, is bring in other players into gaps he creates, his forward runners benefiting from half breaks and building up an unstoppable wave of momentum.  An attacking fly half, with good support runners, can wreak havoc in the gaps that Youngs generates through his pace and constant 'eyes up' approach, which has seen him top the 'assists' chart at Leicester for the last two years.

On the bench, I'm going to give the nod to MIKE PHILLIPS.  Despite some questionable form for Bayonne, there is no doubting big Mike's ability and class.  There aren't many teams I know who can label their 9 as their enforcer (and even fewer who would admit this to be the case) but Phillips' talents for getting in and amongst it is a great asset to have in the squad – capable of rubbing salt in the wound if the Lions are up and disrupting the Australian's flow if the Lions are struggling.  He offers a different kind of threat to Care and Youngs, in that he is the size of most back row players and isn't afraid of mixing it with the big boys:

 

Finally, and unlucky not be starting, I'd be surprised not to see DANNY CARE on the plane.  He has been in scintillating form for Harlequins, starting the season with an incredible 8 tries and a drop goal in just 14 starts – a strike rate most wingers would be chuffed with.  He may have one of the worst haircuts I've seen on a rugby pitch, but there's no denying Care's all round talent for scampering through gaps and getting himself over the tryline.  If there is perhaps one criticism of his play, and this is the reason I have given Youngs the nod ahead of him, is that he doesn't always look to bring others into the game; he is much more focused on creating gaps for himself.  Although this can result in an awesome try-scoring record, it can also stop a team's momentum at source if the wrong option is taken.  This is perhaps reflected in the startling statistic that England have only won 33% of the games Care has started, whilst that percentage is way up at 65% for Ben Youngs.  Despite this, Care's club form cannot be ignored and, as long as he keeps off the sauce, he'll be sure to have an impact in Australia.

 

In terms of others who are in with a shout, Connor Murray could force his way into contention with a good six nations – his lightning delivery is a key part of Munster's backline resurgence.  He will also have a good understanding with Mr Sexton (see below) which is sure to work in his favour.  Another Irishman who is a real bolter for the squad is Ulster flyer Paul Marshall.  Despite being a relative late bloomer at 27, Marshall has been electric for Ulster over the last two seasons whenever he has played – which unfortunately, is not too often as he has a certain Ruan Pienaar blocking his path.  Scotsman Henry Pyrgos is also a great talent who is very highly rated, but his inexperience and probable lack of game time this 6 nations will see him miss the cut.  A dark horse though is the man starting in his place – Greg Laidlaw.  The Edinburgh man, who has played all his test rugby at flyhalf, will be starting the six nations at scrum half which may be an attractive proposition to selectors who want to take another backrow forward instead of a backup 9 or 10.

Fly half – Although perhaps a position of weakness for the Lions, certainly in terms of established depth, that's not to say that there aren't some good players pushing for tour spots.  It is certainly, however, one of the easiest positions in which to call a starter currently.  To threaten the Aussies the Lions need a man who can unleash his runners on the gainline to maximise the chances of getting the opposition going backwards, which makes it twice as hard for their backrow to slow the Lions' ball down effectively.  It also provides the welcome sight of Quade Cooper – if he's playing – loudly soiling himself as he is unable to get out of the way of 100+kgs of British and Irish meat hurtling towards him.  Playing flat and on the gainline commits defenders and allows a 10 to pick their gap in the knowledge that it won't close up before the runner hits the line, due to the fact that the defenders' time to react is significantly reduced.  The only drawback is that the decision making time for the fly half is also diminished, so we need a fly half as cock-sure and confident as James Bond at a Playboy Bunnies party…

Take a bow JONNY SEXTON.  Despite the fact he seems to have a head the size of a ping pong ball, the Leinster 10 is a smooth operator, attacking the line aggressively and bringing the best out in those around him.   Technically astute and powerful when kicking from hand, the Irishman also has an eye for a gap and is deceptively strong, meaning any gaps created by his scrumhalf partner can be mercilessly exploited.  It's no surprise that, during Leinster's period of Heineken Cup dominance, Sexton has been a major driving force behind that success since taking over the role of fly-half from Felipe Contemponi in their 2009 semi-final against Munster.  In fact, the only significant game that Leinster lost in Europe between 2009 and their 2012 triumph against Ulster was a semi-final against Toulouse in 2010 – and Sexton was injured for that.   His class was never more prominent than when he helped drag Leinster from a 22-6 deficit against Northampton in the 2011 final to lead them to a remarkable 33-22 victory in which he was named Man of the Match – his performance is now viewed as one of the best ever in a European final.

 

Any weaknesses? His kicking off the ground was scrutinised in the last World Cup, where he finished the tournament with an awful 49% success ratio.  Since then though his confidence has returned, slotting 22 of 25 kicks last 6 nations for Ireland and nailing around 88% for Leinster last season.  Without question, Sexton is the man in possession of the 10 shirt.

 

Backing him up is a tricky one, with no really established stand out candidates, but I'm going to plump for OWEN FARRELL. The Saracens and England 10 has had his critics about his ability with the ball in hand, but there is no denying his defensive ferocity or dead-eyed accuracy with the boot (remind you of someone?).  He also succeeds in creeping out most watching television audiences and, in all likelihood, opposition players with a "crazy eye rolling" display during his kicking routine.

 

Aside from that, Farrell showed during his performance against the All Blacks for England, and his 32 points (including a record 10 penalties) against Racing Metro in the Heineken Cup, that he displays a superb level of maturity and is what Sir Ian McGeechan would describe as a "test match animal".

 

Who else is looking to impress the selectors?  Welsh duo James Hook and Dan Biggar are both in fine form and are scrapping it out for the Welsh jersey this championship,  with the winner possibly getting themselves a Lions spot, after poor Rhys Priestland dropped from certain tourist to injured and woefully out of form in less than a year.  Toby Flood can be both sublime and seriously sub-par, sometimes in the same game, but if he puts in an impressive run for England and Leicester, there is no reason for him not to be under serious consideration.  And then we turn to the golden oldies:  Ronan O'Gara has led Munster to a European Cup quarter-final, whilst Jonny Wilkinson continues to impress for Toulon – but with them approaching the ripe old ages of 36 and 34 respectively, will they be able to stand up to a Lions tour after a full season of rugby?  I think if we're going to go down that route, why not give Phil Bennett a call to see if he's free? My leftfield selection, who retains a huge amount of experience and, due to rotation policy, will still be fresh come June, is the other Saracens fly half CHARLIE HODGSON.  The former England man has been in mesmerising form for the last 6 months, kicking effectively and, when Saracens decide to run the ball once a month, passing beautifully.  His experience will be invaluable for the other fly halves and, who knows, maybe the old dog has couple more tricks up his sleeve yet.

 

KICKING ON

I've picked a half back combination that I think has the capacity to attack and create confusion in Australian ranks, bringing in the talented runners that the Lions will have over the park, as well being able to play an effective territory game if the situation or conditions call for it.  Come June time, I'm backing Youngs and Sexton to come out top of the class against the Aussies.

 

Starters: Youngs, Sexton

Subs: Phillips, Farrell
Dirt trackers: Care, Hodgson.

 Who would you pick in the key positions of 9 and 10?

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Back Row

One of my pet hates in rugby punditry is how any moron can state "the battle between the backrows is key" before leaning smugly back in his chair and being applauded for his 'insight' by his peers. When is the battle of the backrow not crucial? Attempting to play attacking rugby without at least parity at the breakdown is like trying to ask out Pippa Middleton whilst wearing nothing but lycra on a cold day - futile, probably embarrassing and likely to leave you feeling inadequate. The Lions need loose forwards who can maintain continuity, add ballast in the carry and halt any Australian momentum in its tracks, denying them of ball. With that in mind, let's take a look at the potential chaos-creators at 6, 7 and 8, where the British and Irish sides have an embarrassment of riches. Well, it would be if half of them weren't crocked (or semi crocked). With the way they are dropping, it could just end up as an embarrassment.

Blindside flanker – What have Daniel Lydiate, Stephen Ferris and Tom Croft all got in common? Firstly, they're all top-rate blind side flankers. Lydiate was the player of the six nations last year, Ferris is one of the biggest carriers in Europe, whilst Croft shone for England last season and impressed on the last Lions tour. Secondly, they're all injured. Lydiate and Ferris both injured ankles some months ago and are battling to make the second half of the 6 nations, whilst Croft nearly ended up in wheelchair after trying to tackle Nick Easter with his Adam's apple last April. Although Croft and Ferris should see some top-flight rugby action before the end of the season even if they miss the six nations, via their clubs in the Heineken Cup, it's particularly concerning for Dan Lydiate because the Dragons are, well, pants.

So with these three big hitters out of the picture currently, who is the lead candidate? Step forward SEAN O'BRIEN. I know, I know, he usually plays 7 for Ireland, but it's no coincidence that he's been playing some of his best rugby of the last 2 years at blindside with Shane Jennings at 7 for Leinster. Putting him at 6 allows him to concentrate on wrecking opposition tacklers - the Irish juggernaught is not an out-and-out scavenger or a link man, but a bulldozing carrier and big hitter of enormous physicality. Being between Sean O'Brien and the tryline when he has the ball is not a pleasant place to be; on par with being between John Goodman and a buffet. Check out this video of the big man in full flight:

Who will be following the Leinster wrecking ball into the back row? TOM WOOD demonstrated how one phenomenal match can push you right into contention, and he did that with an immensely physical and energetic performance against the All Blacks in December. Like O'Brien, he can play openside, but watching the blindside is probably the best place for him – and he also provides an extra lineout option, which is always a bonus in the back row. Pushing Wood all the way is Scottish captain Kelly Brown and his two pet slugs that live above his eyes, with the Saracens man coming into some great form of late, and Irishman Kevin McLaughlin is also worth keeping an eye on after some eye catching displays for Leinster.
 

Openside flanker – Ah the art of being a 7. The ability to put your face where most people would hesitate to put their feet and smile sweetly at the referee whilst doing it. If the All Blacks have the king of the breakdown in Richie McCaw, then the Wallabies have the heir to the throne in David Pocock. Outstanding over the ball, and with a pair of guns that would dwarf a small country's arsenal, Pocock is a one man wrecking-machine of a flanker with the ability to turn a game on its head with his steals. The message is clear –"Get Pocock". Who do we task with such an enjoyable job?

A year ago Sam Warburton was nailed on not just for the number 7 shirt, but for the captaincy too. An inspirational leader during Wales' grand slam and during their world cup campaign (until his red card…whoops), Warburton has shown plenty of skill over the ball and has a great engine that enables him to get through astonishing amounts of work. However, he led Wales to three defeats against the Lions' opposition on the 2012 Summer Tour – games they should have won – before injury and average club form set in. That said, if he has a big Six Nations like he needs to, the guy simply has too much class to leave out. SAM WARBURTON gets the benefit of the doubt and the starting position at openside...for now.

He gets this by the skin of his teeth because CHRIS ROBSHAW is breathing down his neck. Dewi Morris amusingly got his knickers into a twist on The Rugby Club lately after proclaiming that Chris Robshaw wasn't a real seven. Stuart Barnes laughed and said "He is a seven - give the guy a break".  Watch the below from 45 seconds onwards (just after they finish praising the excellent Chris Henry)

 

I generally dislike Barnes and his waddling pomposity, but he was bang on the money here. In 2012, Robshaw made an average of 14.6 metres a game (twice that of Warburton), averaged 12.8 tackles (50% more than Warburton), won 6 turnovers and passed/offloaded a staggering 76 times. Robshaw is on a roll, and if he continues to impress with his outstanding workrate and skills as a link man, he will nab the seven shirt.   Who else is pushing for a spot? According to the stats, Ross Rennie was the best 7 in the northern hemisphere in 2012. He affected more turnovers, beat more defenders and made more clean breaks than anyone else, making a ridiculous 21.6 metres on average a game. However, the bulk of these great figures came from his first two games of the year against England and France, before he trailed off as the year went on. Injury also means he'll struggle to make much of a statement this 6 nations. The outstanding Justin Tipuric is a real bolter for the squad following his excellent form for the Ospreys – so much so that Warburton has got a bit nervous and offered to move to blindside to accommodate him in the Welsh team. For Ulster and Ireland, Chris Henry is making similar waves following standout performances in the Heineken Cup and against Argentina in the autumn. And, whisper it quietly, the England selectors may ignore him, but if Steffon Armitage keeps winning every award under the sun (which they have a lot of) in the south of France, the Toulon tubster might yet sneak his way in.     Number 8 – in my opinion, probably the easiest of the backrow positions to call. Jamie Heaslip was under pressure a year ago after some blunt performances, but has come back with a vengeance - he is a Lions veteran of the tour to South Africa, newly appointed Ireland captain and has a ferocious presence around the park. In the Heineken Cup this season he tops the Amlin Opta Index for forwards by a colossal 83 points. Now I don't know exactly what that the Opta Index measures, but I assume it's rugby related and therefore it's good (unless it's a count of dropped passes or something). On top of this he has the ideal character for a leader on the tour – a tough competitor who leads with actions rather than words. I'm pretty sure that Heaslip will be a Lions starter so – and here's the big call – pack your bags, JAMIE HEASLIP, LIONS CAPTAIN.   Behind Heaslip comes the Tongan-born Welshman TOBY FALETAU. He exploded onto the scene at the World Cup in 2011, making some impressive carries and finishing the tournament with a pretty handy statistic of 75 tackles made, 0 missed. In the turd of an Autumn series that the Welsh endured, the afro-headed giant was a shining light, making an awesome 62 metres against the All Blacks, with 1 clean break, 3 defenders beaten and 3 offloads. He will need a big 6 nations to secure a starting spot, but is a definite tourist.   Behind these two come a pair of bruisers who, when they can be bothered, are among the most destructive number eights (along with Frenchman Louis Pick-my-Moles) in Europe. Unfortunately, they both have a habit of going missing for 70 minutes in games when they aren't being using opponents as door mats – I am of course talking about Englishman Ben Morgan and Scottish number 8 Dave Denton. Last season Ben Morgan walked through the French pack in Paris with a trail of no less than five frogs left in his wake when setting up Ben Foden for a try, whilst South African-born Denton bullied England mercilessly in Edinburgh and made an impressive cameo against the All Blacks in the autumn. If they showed some consistency, not only could they both be genuine Lions contenders, but we could also see more moments like this:     Several other number 8s worthy of a mention are floating around too. Harlequins veteran Nick Easter is consistently regarded by pundits as the best 8 in the Aviva Premiership, despite being 'retired' by Lancaster and co. There is no doubt his form has been impressive but the selectors may keep in mind the fact that many England squad members viewed him as a negative influence during their World Cup campaign (according to the leaked report), and this is something a Lions tour could do without. Meanwhile, Montpellier and Scotland number 8 Johnnie Beattie will be hoping to transfer his club form to the international stage after being rejuvenated in France and selected ahead of Dave Denton for the Scots, and James Haskell (not everyone's cup of tea, admittedly) is effective and energetic across the backrow – a jack of all trades, perhaps to his detriment – and is a self-described "banter-merchant", popular with his teammates and sure to be valued on a long tour to the humourless land of Australia. Break Out   The key to beating Pocock and co in the battle of the breakdown will be speed and organisation.  It's no use just trying to bludgeon the openside off the ball with sheer power at rucktime because of Pocock's flawless technique and strength over the ball - like an unwanted STI, he's annoyingly hard to get rid of.  Making sure the Lions have a back-rower supporting a ball carrier in all contact situations will help deny the Australian back row any advantage, and the group I've selected are pretty mobile and dynamic around the park.  In addition to this, they are all, to varying degrees, good ball carriers, which means when they're on the charge they can stay on their feet that extra few seconds whilst waiting for support to arrive.    Starters: O'Brien, Warburton, Heaslip Sub: Robshaw Dirt Trackers: Wood, Faletau   Who would you pick to win the battle of the breakdown?

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Second Row

 

Following up from yesterday's post on which fatties are likely to be touring, today we're going to look at the engine room boys of the second row, where those chosen will have some pretty big boots to fill – literally. Lions legends such as Willie John McBride, Gordon Brown (not the jowly ex-Prime Minister, the Scottish lock from the 70s), Wade Dooley, and Martin Johnson have all been at the heart of Lions packs before.  Then again, so has Brent Cockbain (yes, he's actually toured with the Lions), which helps ease the pressure.  Let's see which lanky lads will be ducking their head onto an Oz-bound plane in 6 months time…

Second Row – This is probably the first time that a partnership really needs to be taken into account.  All the great partnerships have had that perfect balance of brains and brawn – think Matfield and Botha, Kay and Johnson, Torvill and Dean.   Lineout supremacy is key to beating the Wallabies and ensuring they can't get the territory from which their pretty-boy backline can be so effective, so we need a Victor Matfield to call the shots, as well as an 'enforcer' to physically impose himself on the Aussie pack. 

GEOFF PARLING looks and sounds like a B&Q shop assistant, but he is probably the closest thing we have to set-piece guru, seeing that he is a self-confessed lineout geek.  An ever-present in the England resurgence, he has led England towards winning 88% of their lineouts in the 10 games he has started, whilst restricting opponents to 82.5% of theirs – a key difference in close matches.  His contribution around the park has not gone un-noticed as well as he consistently appears towards the top of the tackle charts for England, and his understanding with hookers Hartley and Youngs is key to him getting the nod to start. 

Who's going to back him up?  ALUN WYN JONES is another smarty pants (he's got a law degree, you know) who should play some part in the 6 Nations; if he demonstrates his leadership qualities and rugby nous (and doesn't trip anyone up) then he should get on the plane at the very least.  But wait…I'm forgetting someone…Paul O'Connell anyone?  Remember him?  Captain on the last Lions tour?  Currently the forgotten man of Irish rugby having been injured for the best part of the last year, POC's experience could be an invaluable asset on tour – but with a comeback not due until post 6 Nations, it's likely that time will run out for the angry Munster-man to show he's still got it in big games.  Here's a short video to remind ourselves what Paul O'Connell is all about:

We need some serious bulk to compliment all that grey matter in the engine room, so let's look at who our enforcer is going to be.  Big Scotsman RICHIE GRAY may look like the result of an experiment involving One Direction and a grow-bag, but he packs a punch in the loose and carries hard.  At 6 foot 10 and 20 plus stone, I have to admit I thought he looked like bambi on ice when I first saw him play, but a series of intensely physical displays have seen him rocket in most people's estimation.  The big blonde bimbo made a staggering 31 metres per game on average last six nations (over three times that of any other Lions second-row candidate), beating 6 defenders and making 3 clean breaks.  Take a look at his handy try against Ireland: 

 

 

We can only hope the woefully underperforming Sale Sharks pack hasn't taught him any bad habits – assuming not, Richie Gray starts.

 

Pushing him all the way will be an army of physical second rows – Joe Launchbury is green but acquitted himself well against the mighty Springbok pack and the All Blacks, despite looking as if he hasn't started shaving yet.  Courtney Lawes has come back from injury with a vengeance for Saints, but needs to make a positive impact in the England team again after his catastrophic cameo against Wales last year (where he committed the cardinal sin of allowing a back to nick the ball off him).  Donnacha Ryan is quickly becoming a lynchpin for the Irish pack, as he has for Munster, and if he continues his recent form he will push his way into the selectors' minds, whilst Bradley Davies and Ian Evans have both shone for Wales in the past but are struggling with injuries.  From this lot, I'm going to pick COURTNEY LAWES – capable of scaring the Aussies with his tackling, and I reckon we'll see him starting for England again before the end of the 6 nations.

 SECONDS IN

The key to beating Aussies is always up front, and the locks have to form a key part of that.  Dominate the set piece, win your collisions. The first job of a second row is to secure their own lineout ball, whilst pressurising the opposition into making mistakes in their own throws.  The second job is to rampage around the park in constant state of fury striking terror into the hearts of all who oppose you.  The third job, in Richie Gray's case, is to maintain a quite beautiful mane of blonde hair which, to be frank, is bordering on smug insolence given that all respectable international locks have their hair stuck at a constant short back and sides, if they are able grow any hair at all.  Do these jobs effectively (well, the first two), and the Australians won't be able to get a hold in the game.

Starters:  Richie Gray, Geoff Parling

Sub: Alun Wyn Jones
Dirt tracker: Courtney Lawes

 

Who would you have in your Lions engine room?

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Front Row

Ah, the six nations.  My favourite time of year – rugby, beer, banter and horrendously cringe-worthy politically correct advertisements involving overly enthusiastic (and ethnically diverse) fans on the BBC.

It’s also a Lions year, which means in about two months time, everybody’s pre-tournament Lions predictions will be blown out the water and a small group of smug lucky-guessers will be proclaiming their rugby wisdom to the world.  But as much as we hate to admit it, Lions predictions are our favourite pastime in the months (occasionally years) leading up to a Tour.  So, with the Six Nations hurtling at full throttle over the horizon, and as it’s our first post, Rucked Over takes a look at who is in prime position for the shirts at the moment.

 Let’s start with the fatties....

 Loosehead Prop - the most ambiguous call currently; is this a position of strength or weakness?  On paper you see names such as Jenkins and Sheridan, sparring buddies at Toulon, but Sherry (the Toulon favourite) won’t be getting an international look-in anytime soon, and Geth spends most of his time getting splinters up his backside during Toulon’s big games.  Cian Healey, on the other hand, has always been a beast with the ball in hand, but now the big Leinster man seems to have allayed concerns over his scrummaging with a succession of dominant displays.  He might have a face like a Picasso painting drawn up after a night on the sauce, but when the loosehead can hit and move like this....  



 

  ....CIAN HEALY gets the number 1 shirt at the moment. 

 His back up? Aside for the Toulon duo,  Corbisiero is in the mix if he can hold his body together for more than a month, whilst Joe Marler, Mako Vunipola and Tom Court have all impressed at club level, but probably have too much to prove in the big boy league to get a spot.  We’ll plump for a fit and firing ALEX CORBISIERO and the chunky Welsh wizard GETHIN JENKINS as Mr Healy’s back ups.

 

 

Hooker - an interesting one because the easiest decision is probably who to have on the bench rather than who to start.  TOM YOUNGS has exploded onto the scene since the end of last season after an unusual move from centre to hooker – something my teammates are often encouraging me to do, but for all the wrong reasons.  If ever there was a complimentary way of using the word ‘Chode’ (where a person is wider than he is tall) to describe someone then this is it.  The bloke is a barrel on legs, difficult to tackle and an absolute monster in defence.  People point out throwing as a perceived weakness, but this is s myth:

 

	Heineken Cup starts – Lineout win %	Last 4 international starts – Lineout Win %
Dylan Hartley	88.8%	88.3%
Tom Youngs	89.9%	89.2%
Rory Best	72.7%	88.5%

   Although there were some concerns against Australia in the Autumn about his ability to hold the scrum together, his explosivity makes him an ideal impact sub (although a 6 nations campaign starting for England may change that).   So who starts ahead of him?  It’s a close one, but the leadership qualities of England team-mate DYLAN HARTLEY, along with his scrummaging power and his general abrasiveness, should see him edge it.  The Saint (ah, the irony!) started the season like a runaway freight train, smashing over the try line for 2 tries in his first 2 games, but injuries and bans have knocked him off the rails over recent months.  I expect to see him get back on track (OK enough of the train puns now, I promise) but RORY BEST will be pushing him all the way.  The Ulsterman got the better of Hartley at Franklins Gardens earlier this season, including getting Hartley sin binned with this superb wind up.   He's also pretty mobile, but Hartley perhaps holds the edge in terms of ball carrying. 
And the rest? Ross Ford is a previous tourist and always gives his all but too often seems to get battered about, Matthew Rees has experience but needs to prove himself after an injury plagued two years and Richard Hibbard was proclaimed by his Ospreys coach as the “best hooker in Europe” – but just because my mum reckons I’m the most handsome man in the UK, it doesn’t mean it’s true (apparently). We will reserve judgement until we see him put in some big performances against Europe’s best.  

Tighthead Prop - 25 year old granddad impersonator Dan Cole is the man in pole position without a doubt. Bang in form for the last two years, he has not only established himself as arguably England’s most important player, but his recent performances also edge the experience of Adam Jones in terms of Lions selection. His scrummaging has gradually improved to the point he is regarded by some as one of the most feared operators in world rugby, and he has recalled the lessons learnt in his junior days as a flanker at the breakdown where he is consistently one of England’s top sources of turnover ball. He can also shift a bit when he gets some space - check out his try against Gloucester last year:  




   

So with DAN COLE starting at no.3, who else travels?

ADAM JONES is a certain tourist, despite suffering from injury problems and a lack of form (by his standards) over the last year. Whenever the yeti plays, the Ospreys or Wales seem to play better, a quality that can’t be taught. Of the rest, MIKE ROSS has his supporters whilst Euan Murray can be a force of nature, as long as it isn’t a Sunday. A 50/50 call, but the big Irishman edges it because of his experience of playing big club games over recent years.

ENGAGE!
 

I've picked my specialist lard-boys with the aim of keeping enough scrummaging dominance to give the Lions the advantage at set piece, whilst still providing substantial ballast around the field in terms of ball carrying and general-mayhem-making at the breakdown.  The fact that the Australian scrum is a comparative weakness often gets transformed into a myth that the Stoneygate Social XV front row could give them a shunting, but the fact is they have worked hard at it and gave a good account of themselves in the Rugby Championshipm as well against England and Wales in the AIs.   

Starters: Cian Healy, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole

Subs: Gethin Jenkins, Tom Youngs, Adam Jones

Dirt Trackers: Alex Corbisiero, Rory Best, Mike Ross
 

Which front rowers would you pick in your Lions squad, and who do you think will show up well this Six Nations?